Bold Claims, Real Tools

There is a 10% to 20% chance that AI will lead to human extinction within the next 30 years.

— Geoffrey Hinton, “Godfather of AI” and ex-Google vice president

The story of AI often begins with a bold claim. A CEO predicts AGI is right around the corner. A leader promises disruption that will reshape entire industries. These statements are designed to make headlines, and they do.

Media outlets amplify them because they generate clicks. Social platforms spread them because fear and curiosity fuel engagement. And suddenly, a single soundbite becomes the narrative: the future is already here and your job is likely in its crosshairs.

Step back, though, and the reality looks different. What we have today are powerful but still limited tools. Large language models are not minds. They are advanced prediction engines. They help us work faster, automate routines, and unlock new workflows, but they are still tools, not the seismic shift the headlines suggest (yet).

This cycle of bold vision, amplified story, and grounded reality has played out before. The metaverse. NFTs. Each carried some value but was swept up in outsized promises that could not hold. AI is different in that the tools are already useful and sticky. But the claims around them often leap far ahead of what is real.

Eventually, results catch up to the narrative. Some companies will fade, others will endure, and the hype will cool. What will remain are the workflows that stick, the practices that scale, and the quiet ways AI changes how we work and live.

In the end, it will not be the boldest claims that define this moment. It will be the tools and the people who chose to adapt that endure.